Don't Tell Me the Upside. Tell Me How I Lose Money

"Invert, always invert.” - Charlie Munger

Everyone is buying energy stocks right now. And honestly, I get it. Hormuz is closed. Qatar is damaged. Europe is desperate. The thesis writes itself. But here is the thing about obvious trades. By the time everyone sees them, someone else is already thinking about the exit.

I started asking a different question this week. Not how high can this go. But how does this end badly. Munger always said: invert. So I inverted. What I found made me a lot more cautious. Here is why.