Is Met Coal About To End?
If met coal ends soon, then Alpha and Warrior are dying businesses
Headlines say met coal is dying. The asset register says we are still building the machine that burns it. The narrative says steel is about to go green and coal is about to die.
In this post I break:
Blast furnace fleet age and the real retirement calendar
New build pipeline and where the next ton is actually coming from
Who is locking in seaborne demand
Why substitution is slower than it looks
What green steel really costs
If met coal “ends soon,” then Alpha and Warrior should be dying businesses. They are not priced that way. Why? Someone is wrong.
Roughly 90% of global blast furnace capacity has no stated retirement plan. And a $17.8B integrated BF BOF build is coke demand cemented deep into mid century.
