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Guy Rodwell's avatar

Great read as usual, Sandro. I didn’t know your expertise extended into software!

A couple of points:

1. Valuation: CSU trades at 3.3x P/Sales, or at levels last seen in 2012-13, whereas it’s been as high as 8x in the recent past. You ascribe much of this de-rating to market misconceptions about governance and misplaced fears about AI. However, I would note that ROIC has dropped from the high thirties % to 7% in 2025. I haven’t done the analysis but I would guess this low recent figure is more about below-the-line extraordinary items given that gross margin stayed roughly stable & EBITDA margin rose over the period. Were there write downs, eg of goodwill? Can you hazard an estimate of future ROIC in 3-4 years?

2. Technicals: FWIW, I use LT technicals to time entries and exits. CSU is sitting on horizontal resistance/support last tested in late 2021 and early 2023. It is also at the bottom of a (very tentatively-drawn) channel dating back to 2013. Finally, the weekly RSI failed to confirm the latest dip down, which occurred on somewhat weak volume. I would need to see recovery and confirmation from other preferred indicators before moving ahead on this but I think on balance it will be a lot higher on a 5-year view and I will be looking to buy based on the thesis you set out.

Thanks!

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