The Monopoly Nobody Sees Coming
Transocean Q4 2025 and Full Year Results — Inside the Numbers, the Deal, and the Thesis
“Anyone that has a monopoly will pretend that they’re in incredible competition.” - Peter Thiel
There are many loser companies out there. Companies doing everything they can to convince you they are extraordinary. They tell you they are dominant. They tell you they have an unbeatable model. How nobody can touch them. They want you to believe they are a monopoly. Most of them are not. Most of them are just loud.
And then there is a smaller, quieter group of companies that work very hard to convince you that they are not a monopoly. They try to hide everything. They tell you there is nothing special here. Just a normal business. Nothing to see. Move along.
But those are often the real monopolies.
And what I find most interesting of all is that Transocean is effectively telling us we are not a monopoly, nothing special here, carry on.
“The offshore contract drilling industry is highly competitive with numerous industry participants, none of which has a dominant market share. Drilling contracts are traditionally awarded on a competitive bid basis. Although rig availability, service quality and technical capability are drivers of customer contract awards, bid pricing and intense price competition are often key determinants for which a qualified contractor is awarded a job.” - Transocean Ltd., Form 10-K
Transocean is basically telling us they are just another offshore driller trying to survive the cycle. Just another commodity operator. To win a contract, they have to lower their price. Competition is brutal. Margins are tight. No moat. Nothing to see here. Keep walking.
When the Valaris deal closes, Transocean will control close to 40 percent of the entire global ultra-deepwater fleet. One company. Almost half of the world's most valuable offshore capacity. They also end up with great assets in semis and jackups. If this is not a monopoly, then owning the best assets in a shrinking market is just coincidence.
Today I break down Q4 and the full year. I track insider transactions. I pull out the few lines from the earnings call that actually matter. And I ask the only question worth asking..
Can the deal actually fall apart?
