Good article. In your opinion, which USA met coal producer (AMR, CNR, HCC, METC) has the most coal available for the spot market? Using your five significant spot price increases as examples, to take advantage of the price increase, a producer has to have coal available to sell and ship on spot market and not be bound on longer term fixed price contracts. Do you have an opinion on who can take advantage of the spot price increase the most?
My guess would be HCC for true spot optionality, while AMR probably has the most meaningful exposure to higher market pricing through committed but still unpriced tons.
CNR and METC look more heavily committed already.
I’ve also heard that in an absolute met coal bull market Warrior could potentially push production toward 19–20Mt because of its rail/barge logistics and infrastructure, but I haven’t been able to confirm that number from company disclosures, so I would treat it as upside speculation rather than base case.
Ot must be similar thinking that is part of the rational why long term insiders and already major shareholders have been buying up AMR shares
Good article. In your opinion, which USA met coal producer (AMR, CNR, HCC, METC) has the most coal available for the spot market? Using your five significant spot price increases as examples, to take advantage of the price increase, a producer has to have coal available to sell and ship on spot market and not be bound on longer term fixed price contracts. Do you have an opinion on who can take advantage of the spot price increase the most?
My guess would be HCC for true spot optionality, while AMR probably has the most meaningful exposure to higher market pricing through committed but still unpriced tons.
CNR and METC look more heavily committed already.
I’ve also heard that in an absolute met coal bull market Warrior could potentially push production toward 19–20Mt because of its rail/barge logistics and infrastructure, but I haven’t been able to confirm that number from company disclosures, so I would treat it as upside speculation rather than base case.
Thank you for your thoughts!
Excellent article! Will restack this, more people gotta read this! Read the start of your Ukraine post today also then found this,
thx
À great article. So fluidly written. Thank you. This is surely part of the rational f