A calendar change once quadrupled the price. A flood set a record. A war set another. Now one Chinese province has gone quiet, and the twitchiest commodity on Earth is twitching again.
Good article. In your opinion, which USA met coal producer (AMR, CNR, HCC, METC) has the most coal available for the spot market? Using your five significant spot price increases as examples, to take advantage of the price increase, a producer has to have coal available to sell and ship on spot market and not be bound on longer term fixed price contracts. Do you have an opinion on who can take advantage of the spot price increase the most?
My guess would be HCC for true spot optionality, while AMR probably has the most meaningful exposure to higher market pricing through committed but still unpriced tons.
CNR and METC look more heavily committed already.
I’ve also heard that in an absolute met coal bull market Warrior could potentially push production toward 19–20Mt because of its rail/barge logistics and infrastructure, but I haven’t been able to confirm that number from company disclosures, so I would treat it as upside speculation rather than base case.
Good article. In your opinion, which USA met coal producer (AMR, CNR, HCC, METC) has the most coal available for the spot market? Using your five significant spot price increases as examples, to take advantage of the price increase, a producer has to have coal available to sell and ship on spot market and not be bound on longer term fixed price contracts. Do you have an opinion on who can take advantage of the spot price increase the most?
My guess would be HCC for true spot optionality, while AMR probably has the most meaningful exposure to higher market pricing through committed but still unpriced tons.
CNR and METC look more heavily committed already.
I’ve also heard that in an absolute met coal bull market Warrior could potentially push production toward 19–20Mt because of its rail/barge logistics and infrastructure, but I haven’t been able to confirm that number from company disclosures, so I would treat it as upside speculation rather than base case.